Electricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity market
Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering the right amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price has become the key for utility companies pursuing maximum profits under deregulated electricity market. Therefore, electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting became essential for decision making, scheduling and bidding strategy planning purposes. However, forecasting electricity MCP is a very difficult problem due to uncertainties associated with input variables. Neural network based approach promises to be an effective forecasting tool in an environment with high degree of non-linearity and uncertainty. Although there are several techniques available for short-term MCP forecasting, very little has been done to do mid-term MCP forecasting. Two new artificial neural networks have been proposed and reported in this thesis that can be utilized to forecast mid-term daily peak and mid-term hourly electricity MCP. The proposed neural networks can simulate the electricity MCP with electricity hourly demand, electricity daily peak demand, natural gas price and precipitation as input variables. Two situations have been considered; electricity MCP forecasting under real deregulated electric market and electricity MCP forecasting under deregulated electric market with perfect competition. The PJM interconnect system has been utilized for numerical results. Techniques have been developed to overcome difficulties in training the neural network and improve the training results.
DegreeMaster of Science (M.Sc.)
SupervisorChowdhury, Nurul A.
CommitteeChen, L.; Faired, S. O.; Boulfiza, M.
Copyright DateOctober 2009
Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting
Mid-term MCP forecasting
Deregulated electricity market
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Removing the CWB as a single desk grain marketer: Assessing the initial effects on the Canada-US feed barley market Li, Haoyu (2013-12-17)This thesis examines some of the economic effects associated with the elimination of single desk marketing on Canadian feed barley exports. It focuses on the interactions between Canadian and US spot feed barley markets ...
Aboriginal labour market integration and the 2009 Saskatchewan Labour Market Strategy : An application of John Kingdon's policy stream theory Williams, Ellen (2016-01-21)Within Saskatchewan, Aboriginal labour market integration has been consistently low, especially in comparison to non-Aboriginal peoples. In 2007, the Government of Saskatchewan created a Labour Market Commission to view ...
Norton, Mark (2008-04-24)This study examines the market’s reaction to announcements of dividend increases. In particular, it considers the factors that affect the magnitude of abnormal returns during the days that surround announcements of dividend ...