Deterministic/probabilistic evaluation in composite system planning
The reliability of supply in a bulk electricity system is directly related to the availability of the generation and transmission facilities. In a conventional vertically integrated system these facilities are usually owned and operated by a single company. In the new deregulated utility environment, these facilities could be owned and operated by a number of independent organizations. In this case, the overall system reliability is the responsibility of an independent system operator (ISO). The load point and system reliabilities are a function of the capacities and availabilities of the generation and transmission facilities and the system topology. This research examines the effect of equipment unavailability on the load point and system reliability of two test systems. The unavailabilities of specific generation and transmission facilities have major impacts on the load point and system reliabilities. These impacts are not uniform throughout the system and are highly dependent on the overall system topology and the operational philosophy of the system. Contingency evaluation is a basic planning and operating procedure and different contingencies can have quite different system and load point impacts. The risk levels associated with a given contingency cannot be estimated using deterministic criteria. The studies presented in this thesis estimate the risk associated with each case using probability techniques and rank the cases based on the predicted risk levels. This information should assist power system managers and planners to make objective decisions regarding reliability and cost. Composite system preventive maintenance scheduling is a challenging task. The functional separation of generation and transmission in the new market environment creates operational and scheduling problems related to maintenance. Maintenance schedules must be coordinated through an independent entity (ISO) to assure reliable and economical service. The methods adopted by an ISO to coordinate planned outages are normally based on traditional load flow and stability analysis and deterministic operating criteria. A new method designated as the maintenance coordination technique (MCT) is proposed in this thesis to coordinate maintenance scheduling. The research work illustrated in this thesis indicates that probabilistic criteria and techniques for composite power system analysis can be effectively utilized in both vertically integrated and deregulated utility systems. The conclusions and the techniques presented in this thesis should prove valuable to those responsible for system planning and maintenance coordination.
DegreeMaster of Science (M.Sc.)
CommitteeKarki, Rajesh; Faried, Sherif O.; Burton, Richard T.; Salt, J. Eric
Copyright DateSeptember 2003
Deterministic and Probabilistic Criteria