Prognostic factors associated with disease progression in parkinson's disease
Ferguson, Leslie Wayne
This thesis examined the factors correlated with rapid and benign progression of disease in a group of 1452 Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. The data were collected in a movement disorders clinic at the Royal University Hospital, University of Saskatchewan run by Dr. Alex Rajput and Dr. Ali Rajput. This data is a clinical dataset of PD patients collected from 1970 through to February, 2005. This was a retrospective cases-only study, with anticipated analytical follow-up if any correlations were detected between progression type of PD and the many independent variables available in the dataset. Rapid progression was defined as those subjects who reached Hoehn and Yahr stage 3 within three years or H&Y stage 4 or 5 within five years. Subjects who remained in Hoehn and Yahr stage 1 or 2, ten years after onset of disease, were defined as having benign progression. The study analyzed demographic and clinical findings at first visit to this clinic associated with rapid and benign progression of PD. Analysis revealed that, at first clinic visit, benign progression was positively associated with disease duration (OR=1.41; 95% CI 1.27, 1.57), male sex (OR=3.23; 95% CI 1.70, 6.16), and current smoking habit (OR=2.33; 95% CI 0.67, 8.11). Benign progression was negatively associated with older age of onset (OR=0.36; 95% CI 0.25, 0.50), past history of smoking (OR=0.46; 95% CI 0.24, 0.89), current or past use of levodopa (OR=0.45; 95% CI 0.21, 0.98), and mild to severe rigidity (OR=0.43; 95% CI 0.23, 0.80). Analysis also revealed that, at first clinic visit, rapid progression was positively associated with older age of onset (OR=2.45; 95% CI 1.80, 3.33) and mild to severe rigidity (OR=1.73; 95% CI 1.02, 2.94). Rapid progression was negatively associated with disease duration (OR=0.52; 95% CI 0.44, 0.62), male sex (OR=0.58; CI 0.35, 0.95), and mild to severe resting tremor (OR=0.47; CI 0.28, 0.77). The results of this study indicate that age of onset, disease duration, male sex, and rigidity are good potential predictors of disease progression in PD because they have opposite associations with rapid and benign progression. History of levodopa use was negatively associated with benign progression and as such may be good indicator of non-benign progression. Although previous studies found no predictive value for smoking history, the current study reported a unique association between smoking history and benign progression. Past smoking history was negatively associated with benign progression. While there was a positive association with current smoking history, the result was not statistically significant. Resting tremor was negatively associated with rapid progression and as such may be a good indicator of non-rapid progression. Disease characteristics collected at first clinic visit are useful in predicting the course of progression of PD. With more rapid progression of PD closer and more frequent follow-up of patients may be necessary.
DegreeMaster of Science (M.Sc.)
DepartmentCommunity Health and Epidemiology
ProgramCommunity Health and Epidemiology
CommitteeMuhajarine, Nazeem; Shah, Syed M.
Copyright DateDecember 2005
population based study
multivariable logistic regression