Economic perceptions, vote choice, and the 2011 Saskatchewan Election

Abstract

The 2011 Saskatchewan Election saw a landslide victory for The Saskatchewan Party. They also achieved this victory during a time in which the province was experiencing economic revitalization. Past studies have suggested that incumbents are rewarded for good economic times. As such, the 2011 Saskatchewan election provides for a good case study that aims to understand if perceptions of the economy influenced Saskatchewan residents vote choice at that time. Using data collected from the 2011 Saskatchewan Election Study, this thesis has found that retrospective sociotropic and egocentric perceptions of the economy did have a small direct role in influencing vote choice during the election. However, this thesis also found that once leadership opinions of Brad Wall were added to the statistical analysis these perceptions became insignificant. Interestingly, the same economic perceptions were found to make up a part of Wall’s leadership evaluation. With leadership evaluations being the largest determinant of vote choice, this thesis found that economic perceptions did play a role in the 2011 Saskatchewan Election, albeit in a roundabout way.