ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RISK ASSESSMENT USING RELIABILITY INDEX PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
This thesis describes research conducted III the area of electric power distribution system adequacy assessment. The objectives of this research work were to examine the utilization of reliability index probability distributions in electric power distribution system a.nllh1>is and decision making. This thesis illustrates the utilization of the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to generate reliability index probability distributions for feeders, individual networks and the overall distribution system. The effects on the probability distributions of various changes in system configuration are described. The potential utility financial risks in a PBR regime are evaluated incorporating the reliability index probability distributions in a reward/penalty structure. An imposed reward/penalty structure can have a major impact on the selection of suitable projects for reliability improvement. Some of the basic concepts associated with the development of procedures to generate a reasonable reward/penalty policy are introduced and examined. An examination of the risks in a performance based regime using historical performance data from the CEA Service Continuity Reports is presented. The research work described in this thesis clearly indicates that there is considerable potential for reliability index probability distribution development and application in a PBR regime.